Conservatives scent win

Conservative hopes of registering their first by-election gain in more than 20 years have been rising ahead of the poll in the vacant Cheadle constituency.

Tory sources claim "very encouraging signs" that could lead to them winning the Cheshire seat and inflict defeat on the Liberal Democrats. That would increase the pressure on Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, who has faced a fresh call for him to be replaced over what one senior party member called his "lamentable" performance in charge of the party.

The call, from Donnachadh McCarthy, a former party national executive member who announced he was quitting the Liberal Democrats, was immediately dismissed by Mr Kennedy's aides.

They also denied rumours that defeat tomorrow could hasten a leadership challenge against Mr Kennedy.

The Conservatives have not gained a seat from another party at a by-election since 1982, when Dame Angela Rumbold won the south London seat of Merton, Mitcham and Morden.

Cheadle, on the outskirts of Stockport, is on the face of it unlikely territory for the Tories to end their long, dismal by-election run as the Liberal Democrats now hold it with a majority of more than 4,000.

But just as Tory hopes are rising, the Liberal Democrats, traditionally the by-election specialists, are under pressure early into this parliament. For the first time, Mr Kennedy's party is defending a seat at a by-election rather than attacking.

Cheadle was traditionally a Tory seat until Stephen Day, the sitting Conservative MP, lost to Liberal Democrat contender Patsy Calton in 2001.

Mrs Calton, originally elected on a majority of just 33, consolidated the gain on May 5.

Tomorrow's by-election was called after she died of cancer within weeks of being re-elected.

NEWS.Telegraph